We’ve all seen the headlines by now: “The Patriots Should Make a Move on Lamar”, “Should the Patriots Sign Lamar to an Offer Sheet”, “Robert Kraft says Meek Mill Texted him saying Lamar wants to be a Patriot” and the list goes on and on. Many of the articles you may have read have taken a pro Patriots Lamar angle and suggest that they need to make a move or pay up with Lamar and that he is a dramatic improvement on Mac Jones. There’s also the hot garbage that’s being spewed out there by Dov Kleinman and Mike Florio (not going to give them the clicks by linking their tweets/stories) claiming that the Patriots are shopping Mac Jones; that just doesn’t pass the smell test and our friend Mark Daniels agrees and is actually known to have REAL sources.
Back to Lamar, we feel that is not in the best interest of the Patriots to go after him and quite frankly not in the best interest of many teams based on Lamar’s demands.
Lets dive into why the Patriots should not be interested in Lamar Jackson.
1. Cost and Injury Risk
Theses two are pretty hard to separate and one can’t be discussed without the other which is why they’re lumped together here. These are probably the biggest reasons why the Patriots would/should not even sniff at bringing Lamar in; it’s just too costly/risky. Before you go with the argument that the cap is crap and that Kraft is just being cheap, just look at the history of Super Bowl winners, before this past year, there has never been a QB to win a Super Bowl taking up more than 20% of the teams cap space. Maholmes is a special player that can make up for that, Lamar isn’t Maholmes.
To further complicate matters, any guaranteed money in the NFL needs to be kept upfront in an escrow account; it would be pretty unpalatable for any owner to set aside 1/4 of $1 Billion just for a singular player. Lamar wants to get paid more than Watson, however Watson is a different player than Lamar (probably not a better person than Lamar but we’re not going to touch that subject today). Watson is known for both his mobility AND his arm. Lamar quite frankly is not that accurate and not a great passer so how can he be worth more than Watson.
Currently in the NFL with the ballooning contracts, if you actually look at the value you’re getting back, there’s only a select handful of quarterbacks that are actually worth the money and long term commitment Maholmes and Burrow are the two easiest to name. Allen likely should be included as well with a caveat that he needs to learn to slide and stop taking hits. Other than those 3 QBs, it’s tough to say a large contract may be worth it. Note: Herbert could also be in that list potentially too, however I’m still not sure if he’s a loser or if it’s just his coach Brandon Staley holding him back.
Lost in this whole argument as well is that Lamar isn’t a regular free agent and trade compensation is also at stake; either 2 first round picks or he could sign his tender and the Ravens could workout another trade but they would be looking for something similar to 2 firsts, possibly 1 first and a good player. Is it really worth all of that money in combination with that draft capital which is going to be needed when one player will be taking up that much money? I just can’t fathom the Patriots or many others willing to risk that unless a team is completely porked at the QB position and doesn’t have the fortune to draft a competent one.
Now talking about injuries. The fact of the matter is Lamar has only played in about 70% of his games the last 2 years and he’s only 26 years old. Knowing what we know about mobile quarterbacks, they have a shelf life especially if they’re reliant upon their mobility to be great. Cam Newton, Mike Vick, and Russell Wilson to name a few recent examples. The fact that he’s facing injury issues at his age and hasn’t even reached 30 yet is concerning and again not worth the risk of the money or draft compensation. Let’s take a look at Cam Newton’s injury history as a comparable since us in New England are more familiar with him. In Cam’s first 8 years in the league he played in 96% of all of his games. He then missed all but 2 games in his 9th year and then rebounded and only missed the COVID game in his year with New England and is now basically out of the league. 70% vs 96% speaks for itself and would make me even more concerned how much more that number will drop in the years to come.
2. Mac Jones
Mac is another big piece in all of this After having to endure the 2022 season, it’s frustrating to see all of the negative commentary by fans and the media about Mac. Just look back to his rookie season, he was the top performing rookie QB from his draft class, top 15 QB, and had a top 5 all time rookie season while running the Patriots system, a system not conducive to rookie players. Jump to last year and he had Bevis and Butthead running the show and obviously he didn’t take the next step forward like we all would hope; but there were still nuggets there from him.
Mac obviously has talent or else he wouldn’t have been drafted in the first round, wouldn’t have been coveted by Kyle Shanahan or wouldn’t have started at Alabama. It’s just how do you utilize his skills in the best manner possible? Last year was the worst possible way to do so. Mac’s greatest skill is his mind and by the Patriots trying to simplify things and getting rid of checks at the line, it took away Mac’s greatest skill. It also didn’t help that the route trees were being constructed completely wrong, receivers weren’t in the right spots or running their routes correctly.
Eric and myself are still big Mac Jones believers and I think having Bill O’Brien is one of the biggest things that will help put Mac in the right direction. Just look at how lost Trevor Lawrence looked his first year with that coaching disaster and then with Doug Peterson he looked like a competent quarterback. Coaching is always overlooked by the fans and the media but it is one of the most important aspects in the development and growth of players. B.O.B is probably the biggest addition the Patriots could have made this offseason. With this addition and with potential other ones coming Mac should be able to showcase why he was a first round pick.
3. Scheme Fit
We know that no matter who the QB is, the Patriots will mold their offense to fit their QB’s traits; look at the difference between what was run for Brady vs Newton vs Brissett. So bear with me while I explain why the scheme fit would be a problem. Over the last 25 years we’ve seen here and also in Vegas how important it is to have a QB that is able to run the Patriots’ system the right way. It’s why Carr is gone from Vegas and why Cam never looked comfortable here. The beauty of the real Patriots’ system (not the 2022 one) is that it gives the quarterback the answers to the test basically with checks, motion, and option routes. Mac Jones has the ability to run this successfully because he is very good pre-snap and is an accurate passer. Lamar on the other hand is an unknown at the pre-snap level and we all know he’s not an accurate passer. We all lived through the inaccuracies of Cam and we know Bill did as well and it’s not something that would work well with this scheme, especially if Lamar is looking to stay healthy and on the field and possibly run less to do so.
With all of these reasons combined, the Patriots should stay the course with Mac and continue to try and build around him to have a successful year next year. Who knows maybe we’ll be seeing this come February 11, 2024.
