By Eric,
After starting the season losing their first 2 games of the season, the New England Patriots need to find a way to turn things around and start winning some ball games if they want a chance to make the playoffs. They appear to be facing the right opponent this week in the New York Jets whom they have beaten 14 consecutive times dating back to December 2015. The Jets entered the season as potential AFC favorites after adding future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers. However, their hopes appeared to go down the drain in the first 5 minutes of their first game of the season as Rodgers tore his Achilles and is out for the year. With Rodgers out, the Jets have turned the reigns back over to Zack Wilson whom they drafted 2nd overall in the 2021 draft (the same draft the Patriots selected Mac Jones 15th overall). The Patriots have had a lot of success versus Zack Wilson over the last 2 years, going 4-0 while holding Wilson to a 51% completion percentage, 173 passing yards per game, 2 TDs, 7 INTs, and 11 sacks. While the past 7 years precedent along with their success vs Zack Wilson may favor the Patriots, the Jets have one of the best defenses in football. Additionally, as we saw in the Patriots 1st two games, the team keeps finding ways to get into a large deficit early by making mistakes and turning the ball over. If the Patriots want to pick up their first win of the season, below are what we expect the keys to the game will be on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
Offense:
Key 1: Do Not Turn the Ball Over
This should be a key every game, but especially considering how the Patriots lost the first two games this season with key turnovers early dictating their play, the Patriots need to hold onto the football. Looking back over the past few years during the Post-Brady era in New England (2020-present), the Patriots are 20-4 when they win the turnover margin, 3-9 when they are net-neutral in the turnover margin (3-3 in the last 2 years, 0-6 during 2020 with Cam Newton), and 2-15 when they lose the turnover margin. As we also saw in week 1 for the Jets, they beat AFC East favorite Buffalo Bills 22-16 in overtime, but a big reason they won is they won the turnover margin 4-1. Put simply, if the Patriots don’t turn the ball over, they have a great shot at winning the game. Whereas, if they turn the ball over more than their opponent, they will more than likely lose.
Key 2: Win the Battle in the Trenches (Offensive Line Holds its Own)
For the third straight year, the Patriots offensive line has been an issue to start the season. In 2021, their pass protection was poor and inconsistent the first 4 games of the season, but they found a way to turn things around as the season went along. Last season, the offensive line was inconsistent throughout the year, especially at the tackle position which put the Patriots offense at a disadvantage. In week 1 this season, they were without both starting guards Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu and while they performed admirably for the most part against the best pass rush in the NFL, they still allowed pressures in key situations along with not holding their own in the run game. Last week they were without starting LT Trent Brown, and once again they were unable to get anything going in the run game while allowing pressure on most drop back passes. Brown is off the injury report and the Patriots should have their starting offensive line in the game Sunday for the first time this season which should help their running attack. The offensive line has no easy task this week as they play one of the best front sevens in football, a defense that is excellent in both the run and pass game. It will be a tough task, but the offensive line success this Sunday as well as the rest of the year may likely dictate the Patriots overall team success this season.
Key 3: Play a Complimentary (Non-One-Dimensional) Style of Football
The Patriots the first 2 weeks of the season have had to heavily favor their passing game, in part to their deficiencies on the offensive line mentioned above. During the first two weeks this season, the Patriots threw it 69% of their offensive plays, with 102 pass plays compared to only 45 runs (7 of the runs were by Mac Jones). While Mac Jones has played very well so far considering what is going on around him, the Patriots need to play more complimentary football if they want to be successful. Additionally, the Jets have one of the best defenses in football, and are strong on the defensive line, linebacker position, and defensive backs. There is not an apparent weakness on the defensive which in part is why the Patriots need a complimentary attack. Rhamondre Stevenson is arguably their best player on offense and one of the top 7 running backs in the NFL. To be successful, they must find a way to get the ball in his hands while allowing him a chance to gain yards. If they can get their running game going and mix in some play action passes, it should lead to a more successful offensive attack and help give the Patriots a better shot at winning.
Defense:
Key 1: Pressure Zack Wilson
The most important task for the Patriots defense this Sunday is to pressure Zack Wilson. In Wilson’s 4 career starts versus the Patriots, he has been sacked 11 times, while forcing 7 interceptions. We have seen time and time again when Wilson faces pressure, he tends to become more erratic and throw the ball where he should not. So far this season, the Jets offensive line has been horrendous, allowing pressure a whopping 52% of the time when a defense does NOT blitz. The Patriots have arguably one of the best pass rushes in all of football, with Matthew Judon (2022: 15.5 sacks), Josh Uche (2022: 11.5 sacks), Deatrich Wise (2022: 7.5 sacks), Christian Barmore (2023: 2nd best pass rush win rate of DT at 23%), and rookie Keion White. The Patriots also have a history of scheming up unconventional blitzes that can throw the QB off guard as well. If they can continually get after Wilson, they should force the Jets into long yardage situations while also hopefully forcing some turnovers.
Key 2: Slow Down the Jets Running Game
With Zack Wilson at QB, I do not believe that he alone is good enough to beat the Patriots. However, if the Jets are able to run the ball effectively, they can also mix in some play action and force the Patriots front 7 to slow up their pass rush to respect the running game, which in turn would then allow Zack Wilson more time to process the field without being under duress. The Jets have a really good backfield with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. While the Patriots had success facing Cook last season limiting him to a season low 42 yards on 22 carries, Cook was in a different scheme last season with the Vikings. Also facing a 1-2 punch of Hall and Cook can put pressure on the Patriots run defense as well. If they are able to slow down the run, the Jets will likely have to pass more and become more one dimensional, allowing the Patriots pass rush to tee-off on their rushes which can make it a long day for Zack Wilson.
Key 3: Limit/Take Garrett Wilson out of the Game, Make Zack Wilson Beat You by Targeting Their Secondary Receivers
Garrett Wilson is the Jets #1 wide receiver, and he is a true #1. He might not be in the same category yet that some of the wide receivers they faced in week 1 (AJ Brown, Davonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle) are in, but he is knocking on the door. Drafted by the Jets in 2022 with the #10 overall pick in the draft, Garrett Wilson lived up to expectations in his rookie season last year, compiling 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and 4 touchdowns. Bill Belichick teams have historically been able to take away a team’s top weapons (as we saw them do last week holding Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to a combined 9 catches for 96 as well as in week 1 holding AJ Brown and Davonta Smith to 14 catches for only 126 yards). While the Jets have some complimentary pieces around Wilson in Allen Lazard (2022: 60 receptions, 788 yards, 6 TD) and Mecole Hardman (2022: 25 receptions, 297 yards, 4 TD) at WR and Tyler Conklin (2022: 58 receptions, 552 yards, 3 TD) and CJ Uzomah (2022: 21 receptions, 232 yards, 2 TD) at TE, those players should not be able to beat the Patriots. While the Patriots are without 2 of their top 5 cornerbacks in Jack Jones and Marcus Jones with both players being on injured reserve, along with starting CB Jonathan Jones missing last week and being Questionable on Friday’s injury report, their depth in the secondary should be able to hold their own. Rookie CB Christian Gonzalez has played exceptional the first 2 weeks, appearing to live up to his 1st round promise, Myles Bryant has been a pleasant surprise and improvement from the past couple years, while Jalen Mills and Shaun Wade have played well in their limited action. If the Patriots are able to limit the production of Garrett Wilson, they will have a good shot at winning on Sunday.
