By, Eric B
Every year as training camp and the preseason comes to an end, fans try and project which players will make their respective NFL’s team, and which players may end up being traded or released. That is no different here, as I went through this exercise last year at this time (correctly projecting 45 of the 53 players I might add). This seasons’ roster projections seemed even more difficult than in years past, as several positions either have a lot of quality depth (defensive line, defensive back room), or a lot of young players with potential (offensive line). It will be interesting to see what ultimately unfolds with the final roster and if there are any surprising trades or cuts which we in New England have grown accustomed to in the Bill Belichick era (Lawyer Milloy 03, Richard Seymour 09, Brandon Merriweather 11, Dan Koppen 12, Logan Mankins 14, and Cam Newton 21 to name a few). Below I break down my projections and thoughts to the 53-man roster following cut down day which is August 29th
QB (3)
- Mac Jones
- Bailey Zappe
- Malik Cunningham
–Practice Squad: Trace McSorley
Mac and Bailey are a lock to make it. It then comes down to whether the Patriots want to carry 3 QBs, and if so do they go with Malik or Trace McSorley? Based on last year’s results with the Patriots losing their top 2 QBs within the span of just a few quarters, my guess is that they would carry 3 QBs. Additionally, a new rule was implemented this offseason that allows any team to have a player on their 53 man roster not dress for gameday but be eligible to come in at QB in an emergency situation if the first 2 QBs suffer injuries. When it comes to whether they go with Malik or Trace, my guess is Malik based on the additional versatility he can provide, potentially playing some reps at RB and WR. Additionally, the Patriot have a 19 year streak of an undrafted rookie free agent making the roster, and Malik can make it 20 years this year.
RB (3)
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Pierre Strong
– Practice Squad: Kevin Harris, JJ Taylor
– Cut: Ty Montgomery, CJ Marable
Mondre and Elliott are both locks to make the roster. The next question is how many RB make it and which of the available options do. My guess is that they go with 3 and keep Pierre Strong based on his potential (4th round pick last year), speed, ability to be a 3rd down back and catch the ball out of the backfield, and his ability to pick up blitzes in pass protection. Kevin Harris showed promise at times late last season but has not appeared to take that next step forward so far this offseason. JJ Taylor seems like he has improved but it will likely be another year on the practice squad for him. Montgomery for the second straight year has looked impressive in camp only to get derailed by injury. I could potentially see him making the roster, but his injury history mixed with the addition of Zeke has him left off this year. Marable likely was just another camp body.
WR (6)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Davonte Parker
- Kendrick Bourne
- Tyquan Thornton
- Demario Douglas
- Kayshon Boutte
–IR: Tre Nixon
–Practice Squad: Thyrick Pitts
–Cuts: Raleigh Webb
JuJu, Parker, Bourne, and Douglas are locks in my humble opinion. Based on the emergence of Boutte the past few weeks along with his promising first couple years at LSU, I have Boutte as a 99% lock of making the roster. Tyquan is an interesting one. Like Montgomery, he had a strong start to camp last year and this year, only to get hurt and not appear able to pick up where he left off. With him being a 2nd round pick entering into only his second year I believe the Patriots will likely hold onto him to see if they can maximize his promise and potential (whether that is keeping 6 WR or placing him on IR after cut down day). However, as mentioned on our latest podcast, I would not be shocked if he is the odd man out and cut with the emergence of 2 rookie WR. I do not expect that to be the case but would not be shocked non the less. Pitts is promising as an UDFA but has not shown enough to make the roster. He may be a developmental player on the practice squad, while Webb will be released.
TE (2)
- Hunter Henry
- Mike Gesicki
–Practice Squad: Matt Sokol
–Cut: Anthony Firkser, Johnny Lumpkin, Scotty Washington
Gesicki and Henry are locks as a solid 1 – 2 punch at TE. While I could see them carrying a 3rd TE especially considering Gesicki’s shoulder injury (he did return to practice this week), I think they ultimately go with 2 and carry a 3rd TE on the practice squad with the potential to elevate if a certain match up requires a 3rd TE (presumably a blocking TE). Sokol has emerged as the best blocking TE on the roster this camp, and think he will be stashed on the practice squad, while Firkser, Lumpkin, and Washington will be released.
OL (9)
- Trent Brown
- Cole Strange
- David Andrews
- Michael Onwenu
- Riley Reiff
- Sidy Sow
- Antonio Mafi
- Jake Andrews
- Conor McDermott
–Non Football Injury: Calvin Anderson
–Practice Squad: Bill Murray, Kody Russey, James Ferentz
–Cut: Chasen Hines, Andrew Stueber, Micah Vanterpool
The offensive line decisions are going to be interesting to watch. At full health, it appears that the starting line is set in some combination of Brown, Strange, David Andrews, Michael Onwenu, Riley Reiff. The Patriots drafted 3 rookies in the 4th or 5th round of this years draft (Sow, Mafi, Jake Andrews) and I don’t envision them giving up on any of them after camp, even if they have not taken the next step. I don’t envision them having only rookies on the bench for the line and see them carrying one more on the 53, with several on the practice squad to choose from to elevate on game day. I kept going back and forth on the last player to make the roster for the OL and decided with Conor McDermott given he is an OT while the 3 drafted rookies are all interior lineman, with McDermott stepping in and being a serviceable RT for the Patriots last year. I think Murray and Ferentz will both make the practice squad given Bill really liking both of them along with their versatility. I think one additional OL will make the practice squad and it is likely a crapshoot between Russey, Hines, and Stueber. Vanterpool will be cut.
DE/Edge (4)
- Matt Judon
- Josh Uche
- Deatriche Wise
- Keion White
–PUP: Trey Flowers
–Cut: Ronnie Perkins
Judon, Uche, Wise, and White are all locks to make the roster. The only exception to that would be, I could see Uche as a surprise trade candidate. He is heading into the last year of his deal and had 11 sacks in essentially half the season last year and Bill typically does not pay one dimensional pass rushers (example Chandler Jones). I do not think the return for Uche would be substantial enough to trade him considering only ½ a seasons worth of production in 3 years, but given the emergence of Keion White, and the potential for Jennings to rush off the edge I would not be shocked to see him traded. Perkins has finally reached the end of the road in New England.
DT (5)
- Christian Barmore
- Davon Godchaux
- Sam Roberts
- Danny Ekuale
- Carl Davis
–Practice Squad: Justus Tavai, Jeremiah Pharms
–Cut: Lawrence Guy
At the defensive tackle position, Barmore and Godchaux are locks. The rest appears to be murky as to who will make the team. Given the need for an improved run defense up front, I think Carl Davis is a safe bet. I also have Sam Roberts (who I have been very high on since the draft) making the team for another developmental year as a pass rushing DT. Danny Ekuale has been productive when utilized since joining New England in 2021 and I think he still has a roster spot. I also have Pharms make the practice squad after barely being left off the roster. Lawrence Guy is included as a surprise cut. I think that he has lost a few steps over the past couple years and the team will move on with younger options. I could also see Guy retiring as well. While Justus Tavai will not have a spot on the roster, I predict he will be on the practice squad considering Bill’s love of his brother Jahlani.
LB (5)
- Ja’Wahun Bentley
- Jahlani Tavai
- Anfernee Jennings
- Marte Mapu
- Chris Board
- Mack Wilson*
–Practice Squad: Calvin Munson, Diego Fagot
–Cut: Joe Giles-Harris, Carson Wells
Bentley, Tavai and Mapu are all locks to make the team, and I believe Board is close to a lock as well considering his play on special teams with Bill last year saying he was one of the best special teams players in the league. Jennings I believe also keeps a spot on the team with another strong camp and ability to rush the passer. Wilson I believe is on the bubble, but think his speed at the LB position along with his special teams play will keep him on the 53 but also would not be surprised if he does not make it. Munson I think is also on the bubble but have him just off the 53 but on the practice squad. Diego Fagot who was a star at Navy I have making the practice squad but would not be surprised if he is fully released.
*Regarding Mack Wilson, I think he will be released at cut down day, but after a player is then placed on IR with designation to return (possibly Tyquan Thornton or Isaiah Bolden), he will be signed back to the 53 man roster.
CB (7)
- Jonathan Jones
- Jack Jones
- Marcus Jones
- Christian Gonzalez
- Jalen Mills
- Isaiah Bolden
- Myles Bryant
–Practice Squad: Ameer Speed, Shaun Wade
–Cut: Quandre Mosely, Rodney Randle
The CB room is another interesting roster battle this camp for the final spots on the roster. The 3 Jones, along with Gonzalez and Mills are all locks to make the team. While most fans do not like Myles Bryant, he did play over 60% of the defensive snaps last season and has the versatility to play CB, slot corner, and safety so I believe he has a spot on the roster. Isaiah Bolden played himself onto the roster this camp, however the uncertainty of his return from concussion does make his projection more of a crapshuit of whether it is on the 53 man roster to start the season or if they place him on IR before cutdown day which would end his season but open up a spot for someone else. For now I have them keeping on the 53 so he has a chance to play this season which knocks Ameer Speed off to the practice squad, but if Bolden is in fact IR’d, I would have Speed taking his spot on the roster. Shaun Wade has had a good camp this year, but I think there is just not an open spot on the roster for him and see him staying on the practice squad unless another team picks him up. Mosely and Randle I have both being released and not making the practice squad, but could see either of them staying on the practice squad if a spot is available.
S (3)
- Kyle Dugger
- Jabrill Peppers
- Adrian Phillips
–Practice Squad: Joshua Bledsoe
–Cut: Brad Hawkins
Dugger, Peppers, and Philips are all locks to make the roster and are the only pure safeties I have on the final roster. Given the versatility of Mills, Bryant, and Mapu to all also play the safety position, it limits the need to carry 4 safeties and see Joshua Bledsoe being a casualty as a result. I think Bledsoe is a prime candidate for the practice squad if another team does not pick him up.
K (2)
- Chad Ryland
- Nick Folk
Initially had just Ryland making the team with Folk likely heading home to Dallas, but given Ryland’s struggles this week at camp mixed with Folk’s consistency the last 3.5 years in New England (highest field goal percentage in team history),, I see the Patriots carrying both kickers with Folk doing kicks less than 50 yards plus extra points, while Ryland kicks field goals 50+ yards and handles the kickoff duties. If Ryland has another inconsistent week at practice/in games, I could see them going the route they did in 2021 with Quinn Nordin where they cut Folk but tell him they are signing him back later in the week and place Ryland on IR with Foxboro Flu with the potential to come back during the season. It should be interesting considering how much Bill values special teams, how consistent Folk has been since coming to New England, and how close the competition has been this camp.
P (1)
- Bryce Baringer
-Practice Squad: Corliss Waitman
Baringer has had some inconsistencies, but has had some booming punts, especially in the preseason. Given that, I have him making the 53 man roster while Waitman stays on the practice squad.
Special Teams (3)
- Joe Cardona
- Matthew Slater
- Brenden Schooler
No surprises here.
PUP
- Trey Flowers
- Cody Davis
NFI
- Calvin Anderson
Practice Squad
- QB Trace McSorley
- RB Kevin Harris
- RB JJ Taylor
- WR Thyrick Pitts
- TE Matt Sokol
- OL Bill Murray
- OL Kody Russey
- OL James Ferentz
- DL Jeremiah Pharms
- DT Justus Tavai
- LB Calvin Munson
- LB Diego Fagot
- DB Shaun Wade
- DB Ameer Speed
- S Joshua Bledsoe
- P Corliss Waitman
