By Eric and Kevin
With NFL Free Agency set to begin on March 15th (Legal tampering begins on March 13), the Patriots will begin the process of acquiring new players to join the roster in hopes of improving on their disappointing season last year where they finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs for the second time in the last three seasons. While it is important to assess potential positional upgrades, the Patriots have some key players of their own who were starters or important rotational players whose contracts have expired and are upcoming free agents. While the Patriots would likely want to keep some of these players, we will go through the list with our predictions of who we believe will be re-signed, leave to another team via free agency, or may retire.
2023 Patriots Free Agents:
Jakobi Meyers WR
Eric: Gone. I think it may be close to 50-50 whether Meyers stays or goes. Reports this week were that teams do not see him in the same tier that Christian Kirk was last offseason, and he may be in play for $12-$14 million per year. If this remains the case I could definitely see the Patriots re-signing him to a contract in the range of 3 year $40 million. However, he is by far the best WR available in FA and ultimately I believe a team will overpay for him to the degree that the Patriots are not comfortable matching.
Kevin: Gone. Agree with Eric on this one. Since Meyers is the top ranked WR free agent out there, there likely will be a team that is willing to overpay for Meyers to obtain a WR. The Patriots are going to have a price set on him and likely won’t budge nor should they since while Meyers is a nice piece to have, he’s not an elite WR or even a number 1 WR. A good reasonable price point for him would be in the $10-12 million range since that is comparable to what they gave Agholor. The Patriots like we’ve said for a while lack difference makers on offense and need to get more production from the WR group.
Jonathan Jones CB
Eric: Re-signs. Again I believe it is close to a 50-50 decision with Jones and again will depend on if a team ultimately overpays for him. The Patriots really like him and I believe they would like to bring him back. However, I think it remains to be seen whether they would keep him at the outside CB role he played last year with intermediate success (tremendous the first half of the year, inconsistent the second half of the year versus better receivers) or transition him back to being a slot CB where he was one of the best in the league the last 5 years or so. Ultimately I think he resigns but would not be shocked if another team overpays for him to the point the Patriots are not comfortable matching.
Kevin: Gone. I’m on the other end of the 50-50 decision here with Jones since there likely will be a team to overpay him. Corners are hard to come by and I could easily see someone going anywhere from the $10-18 million range for Jones which would be pretty high. Jones, while being an elite slot corner, struggled last year against the true number one wide-receivers. Unless they can get him for under $10 million, they should walk away and use that money elsewhere and try to obtain a shutdown corner.
Devin McCourty S
Eric: Re-signs. The decision for Devin comes down to if he plays one more year or retires. Devin led the Patriots defense playing 97% of all defensive snaps (second closest was Ja’Whaun Bentley at 80%). While McCourty might not be the same All-Pro safety he was last decade, he still has some left in the tank and is the leader of the Patriots defense. Considering how the season ended with the Patriots not making the playoffs, along with Devin still being productive last year, I ultimately see him signing up for at least 1 more year and hoping the season ends on a better note.
Kevin: Re-signs. If you asked me after the Bills game I would have said that both Devin and Slater would be retired and that if I had to bet on just one retiring I would have chosen Slater. However after time has passed and with Slater’s return it seems more likely that Devin may play another year as well. Devin still has some left in the tank and would be great to have back for another year. Knowing this, the Patriots should start to look to backfill his replacement and have him help groom his upcoming replacement.
Damien Harris RB
Eric: Gone. I really like Harris and believe the Patriots need a second running back behind Stevenson to lighten his load (whether it be Pierre Strong, Kevin Harris, or someone they get in FA or the draft). However, I think Harris will command too much money for the role he would have on the Patriots and would also likely not settle for a RB2 role. Unless he is willing to take a hometown discount or is fine not being the lead back, sadly Damien will be gone this upcoming season.
Kevin: Gone. We all know that you should never heavily pay a RB on their second contract and the Patriots know this as well. Harris is a terrific player and one of my favorites on the team but I think that someone will end up overpaying him in free agency. I think that someone likely may end up being the Raiders even though they are franchising Jacobs, since McDaniels has the familiarity with Harris. The Patriots also have two young backs in Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong and based on their small sample size, it looks like both can play. However, if teams are scared away by Harris’s injury history and they can get him on a lower deal then by all means the Patriots should bring him back.
Remaining Patriots Free Agents:
Jabrill Peppers S
Eric: Re-signs
Kevin: Re-signs
Nelson Agholor WR
Eric: Gone
Kevin: Gone
Isaiah Wynn OT
Eric: Gone
Kevin: Gone
Cody Davis ST
Eric: Re-signs
Kevin: Re-signs
Joejuan Williams CB
Eric: Gone
Kevin: Gone
Raekwon McMillan LB
Eric: Re-signs
Kevin: Re-signs
Mack Wilson
Eric: Re-signs
Kevin: Gone
Carl Davis DT
Eric: Re-signs
Kevin: R-esigns
Marcus Cannon OT
Eric: Gone
Kevin: Gone
Joe Cardona LS
Eric: Re-signs
Kevin: Re-signs
James Ferentz C/G
Eric: Re-signs
Kevin: Re-signs
Yodny Cajuste OT
Eric: Gone
Kevin: Re-signs
Myles Bryant CB
Eric: Gone
Kevin: Re-signs
